Disclaimer: The content of this article is sourced from a video that is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. The opinions expressed are solely those of the participants and may not reflect those of VRIFY. Always conduct your own due diligence or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
As markets experience ups and downs, so does interest in mineral exploration. In our most recent webinar, Rick Rule, of Rule Investment Media and Neil Adshead, of Cupel Advisory joined Steve de Jong, CEO of VRIFY for a grounded discussion on market cycles, capital discipline, and how smart money is navigating a sector caught between hype and fundamentals. Here are five key takeaways from their conversation.
1. From Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) to Patience
Both Neil and Rick cautioned that the current market has reached a point where enthusiasm is outpacing logic. Rick described how quickly the bull cycle accelerated — juniors “were crowding into the funding window and coming out with more money than they went in for at valuations that were bordering on ridiculous.” Despite overall positive sentiment around gold’s long-term outlook, Rick took profits, selling a quarter of his junior exposure to eliminate downside and redeploying into producers and physical metal. Neil echoed that sense of overheating, noting, “We’ve seen a few share charts go parabolic,” and that many companies are raising far beyond what they need.
For investors, the message was clear: There’s no need to chase every rally. Markets that rise quickly often correct quickly, too. “Don’t get wrapped up in FOMO,” Neil said. Instead, stay patient and wait for stronger opportunities to resurface when the hype fades.
2. Invest in the Plan, Not the Pitch
As capital floods back into exploration, the balance of power has shifted toward issuers. “The financings that are getting done today favour the issuers, not the cheque writers,” Rick noted, pointing out that even weak teams are raising money with no warrants and minimal discounts. He estimates that “only 15 percent of listings are worth financing at any price,” a reminder that an abundance of capital does not automatically lead to discipline.
For investors, that environment raises the bar on evaluation. Neil was clear about what separates strong companies from the rest. “That turns me off immediately,” he said of presentations that begin with commodity macro slides rather than a credible plan. “I invest in the business plan.” Good teams explain how each dollar creates value, while weaker ones rely on narratives that are difficult to verify. As Neil put it, “If you are selling copper to me, I’ll go buy some copper futures.”
When companies raise money simply because the window is open, it is the investor’s responsibility to stay selective. Clear use of proceeds, respect for dilution, and a realistic, well-structured plan are the markers that distinguish the few worth backing from the many chasing momentum.
3. M&A Momentum Is Building
The announcement of Probe’s acquisition by Fresnillo stood out to both panelists as an important signal that the M&A cycle is underway. “The arms on the clock have moved forward a couple of notches…I think we’ve just entered the next stage of the bull market where the M&A is going to ratchet up” Neil said. After years of capital restraint, producers are generating record free cash flow. With limited organic growth options, acquisitions are the logical next step.
Neil noted that many single-asset projects that have sat idle for a decade now look attractive again. As cash accumulates in the sector, those projects are unlikely to remain untouched. The move by Fresnillo, a company with limited North American exposure, shows that buyers are willing to look further afield for opportunities as the pool of available assets begins to shrink.
4. A New Generation of Investors Is Entering the Sector
Rick highlighted a significant shift in who is paying attention to the space. The incoming audience for exploration is no longer made up exclusively of older, long-time resource investors. “My new database is now, in the last three years, 50 percent below [age] 50 and 35 percent women,” he said. This change brings new liquidity and renewed interest, but also some new challenges. Many of these investors are keen to participate yet remain skeptical about their ability to separate strong companies from weak ones.
That gap creates a strong demand for clearer communication and tools that make technical information easier to understand. Rick noted that the junior mining business doesn’t know how to access this new audience, despite the significant capital they represent. As investor demographics shift, companies that communicate transparently, provide context, and make their data easier to evaluate will stand out. A more informed investor base with high expectations helps strengthen the entire sector. It reduces the influence of promotional noise and directs more capital toward companies with real technical quality and credible teams.
5. Exploration Works Best from the Ground Up
Exploration, by nature, is risky, and that risk is best handled by small, agile teams. Rick shared a comment from a CEO: “The juniors as a whole have a combined cost of capital at sub-zero.” With major producers facing real capital costs and limited exploration capacity, it is more efficient for them to fund high-quality juniors than to rebuild resource-intensive in-house departments.
Neil has witnessed this dynamic firsthand as he invests in exploration groups that are motivated and technically strong. By contrast, he said, the culture inside large corporations can discourage risk-taking. “The more exploration risk you give me, the better. I want that risk,” he added. The most successful discoveries will continue to come from passionate, well-capitalized juniors that embrace technical uncertainty.
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The current market is full of opportunity but equally full of risk. Smart money is stepping back from the hype and focusing on the quality of investments. The next phase of the cycle will likely bring more consolidation, better-funded exploration, and a sharper focus on credible people and plans.
For investors, the lesson is to separate the wheat from the chaff, and for explorers, it is a reminder that transparency and technical rigour will always attract the right kind of capital through every stage of the cycle.
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You can find “From Hype to Fundamentals: How Smart Money Is Navigating Mining’s Wild Ride” on the VRIFY YouTube channel, be sure to listen and subscribe for future webinars.
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